The Impact of Mass Deportations and the Need for Comprehensive Immigration Reform
The issue of uncontrolled immigration played a key role in President Trump’s victory, and he promised to tackle it head-on. True to his word, on his first day back in office, Trump signed a series of executive orders to authorize the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants, particularly those who have committed crimes. This policy enjoys broad support from Americans, with 83% backing the deportation of criminals, including a majority of Democrats.
While deporting violent criminals is widely considered the right approach for improving public safety, the consequences of mass deportations could have significant and far-reaching effects on the United States, especially in states like California.
Targeted deportations of criminals make sense, but mass deportations could create serious challenges. If deportations are expanded to include peaceful, undocumented immigrants or those who arrived as children, the economic and social repercussions could be severe.
The biggest impact would be economic, given the large number of undocumented workers in the U.S. As of 2022, there were roughly 11 million unauthorized immigrants, with more than 8 million of them employed. Many of these workers are concentrated in key states like California, New York, Texas, and Florida, which account for nearly half of the unauthorized population. These workers paid more than $18 billion in taxes in 2022 alone.
In California, undocumented workers make up a significant portion of the farm workforce, with estimates ranging from 50% to 70%. If these workers were deported en masse, the consequences would be dire for the state’s food supply, causing grocery prices to rise sharply. In Kern County, for example, fear of ICE raids has already caused 20-30% of undocumented farmworkers to skip work, and experts predict that prolonged worker absences could cost California over $500 million in lost revenue.
On a national level, targeting the 8.3 million undocumented workers could lead to a 6-7% decrease in the U.S. GDP, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The industries most affected would include construction, manufacturing, and hospitality, all of which rely heavily on immigrant labor. These workers are also critical to rebuilding areas affected by natural disasters, such as Los Angeles, where rebuilding efforts would be delayed by "twice as long" if mass deportations occurred, according to Dan Gatsby of the Los Angeles Builders Association.
The economic fallout of mass deportations would likely lead to rising inflation, undercutting the promise to lower prices, while also severely weakening local economies like California’s, which is heavily dependent on migrant labor.
Mass deportations also carry geopolitical and humanitarian risks. Trump’s recent deal with Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, to accept Venezuelans in exchange for continued oil flow is a controversial example. Many of these deportees fled Maduro’s regime, and their return could put them at risk of retribution, raising significant human rights concerns.
To mitigate these risks, deportations must focus on individuals who pose a clear threat to public safety, not those whose safety is endangered by their return. This approach would also help limit the negative economic consequences, as criminals contribute little to the economy.
This is not to oppose deporting violent criminals or the much-needed steps to secure the Southern border. However, it highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the U.S. immigration system, which has remained unchanged for over 34 years. We must create a system that both addresses the issue of criminal immigration and allows those who seek a better life and wish to contribute to the country’s economy the opportunity to do so legally.
